IT’S BAD NEWS for the UK economy – again. Poor old “Rachel from Accounts” keeps trying her best, but as soon as things look like they might be on the right track, something pops up to blow the economy off course.

The latest blow to Keir Starmer’s Chancellor is an assessment of the financial implications of the US/Israeli war on Iran, conducted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This is one of those shadowy, self-appointed organisations of self-proclaimed experts which has an effect on the world economy just by speculating.

The OECD assessment predicts that the UK economy will suffer more as a result of the war on Iran than any other major country. It forecasts that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – that is, everything that the UK makes in a year, both goods and services – will shrink by 0.5% in 2026. It puts that down to higher gas prices: the UK is heavily dependent on gas, more so than most other big economies.

The USA fares better in the OECD’s eyes. Growth is forecast to rise as a result of the war on Iran, not least because it exports fuel and the war has increased fuel prices.

Did we really need the OECD to tell us that?  Iran has responded to the miltary attack from the US and Israel by closing the Strait of Hormuz and targeting oil processing and export facilities in other Gulf states. The USA is the world’s top producer of crude oil and all but owns Venezuela’s oil too. The war has reduced the supply of oil from the Gulf and increased prices, and the USA can cash in – which it will need to do, to fund the munitions it is raining down on Iran.

We don’t need to squabble over who is most worst off as a result of a war that will make us all very worse off. We need to stop the bloody war and get back to running the world on the basis of the human rights sentiments that came out of the last World War.

At least there’s one piece of good news in all this gloomy economic forecasting. With the OECD funded by its member countries, with contributions on the basis of their domestic economy. If the OECD’s predictions are true, the UK can at least budget on its contribution to the OECD going down. Rachel will be delighted.

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