PREPARING for the talks that are supposed to lead to peace in the Middle East has sounded like four boxers winding each other up as they prepare to enter the ring for the main and the warm-up fights.

The Main Bout – USA and Iran
The US establishment has looked at the failure of the war to cow Iran, the financial cost and the unpopularity of the adventure as the country heads for mid-term elections on 3rd November. It has done a handbrake turn and told US President Donald Trump to stop it. Trump has sulked like a child who has had his ball taken away.  He is trying to cover up the failure of his war of choice by continuing with belligerent ranting – warning that he still has troops in the Middle East and is not afraid to use them. What is different now is that everyone knows the USA is afraid to use the troops.  Trump may know that, but he probably doesn’t really believe it.

Trump has put Vice-President J.D. Vance to lead negotiations for the USA. Vance will be a handy fall-guy if and when the talks collapse. Trump wants to distance himself from any suggestion of failure.  Vance has obligingly echoed Trump’s racist condescension and suggested that Iran is only in the talks because it is defeated. He added that the USA will negotiate in good faith, but warned that if Iran “tries to play us”, the talks are off. He warned that if Iran does not agree to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, it will be opened without them.

Iran has withstood the US attack. It has shown that Trump’s boasts that Iran has been disarmed are hollow. Now that a two-week ceasefire and negotiations are in place, it has demanded that the USA gives it due respect during the talks and recognises its rights.  It has also boldly put forward its demands for a permanent end to hostilities: reparations, removal of US troops from the area, and its right to close the Strait of Hormuz when it wants to.

The Warm-up Bout – Israel and Lebanon
After the US/Iran ceasefire began, Israel carried on shelling Lebanon. Iran pointed out there was a ceasefire, and Israel said that was a USA/Iran ceasefire, which did not apply to Israel and carried on bombing Lebanon. Israel then did a U-turn and said it would hold talks with Lebanon… and carried on bombing Lebanon.

Israel says it wants to “eliminate” (“kill”) Hezbollah – a political party and paramilitary group backed by Iran. This is in order to fulfil Israel’s war aims of rendering Iran incapable of threatening Israel, which are also the USA’s war aims, as it is a joint warn, except when it is not a joint war and the USA has its own warm aims, such as regime change.

Lebanon says that armed attacks by Israel since the start of the war on Iran have killed over 1,700 people, including at least 130 children. Israel says that 1,100 of those killed were Hezbollah members and has not explained why it thinks the other 600 had to die. During the recent war, Israel has warned swathes of those living in southern Lebanon, up to and including some parts of Beirut, to leave the area. Lebanon believes that over 1.2 million people have had to flee – some 20% of its population.  Israel is demolishing villages in south Lebanon that have been depopulated: it’s a horrendous second showing of its tactics in Gaza. Lebanon is not commenting on what it wants from the talks with Israel, but as everyone else is looking for a future free from the threat of military attack, that would be a good start.

The protagonists are lined up. The world is watching

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